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Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the crisis triggered by the announcement of a new 28-point plan for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after diplomatic discussions in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its retaliation: a renewed assault of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.

The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action

The succession of conflicting incidents captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are conducted: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Significant resources is expended on managing certain initiatives. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, military action persists as the primary tool for achieving "peace".

After-Dark Attacks

As military strikes progressed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was revealed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability afforded by current data. From vantage locations, military aircraft that had been deployed to engage hostile cruise missiles flew past – sophisticated military planes provided to Ukraine by European allies.

Moments later, Kyiv's air-defence systems activated: defensive missiles deployed against a incoming threat. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, most likely supplied through partner states. Every deployment jolts you unexpectedly, shaking the windows. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: maybe the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, preventing destruction from ruin and further power outages.

Continuous Dangers

Following this, a heavy machine gun fired at a unmanned aircraft close by, part of a rapid response unit – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Regrettably, the projectiles didn't strike the opposing UAV – it maintained course toward its target.

With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: multiple fatalities, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still went about their day – experiencing conflict. But those 24 hours illustrated Ukraine's vital need on external assistance – a dependence that regional partners are clearly incapable to substitute in the immediate future.

Unsuccessful Negotiations

The comprehensive proposal from Washington generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and international summits.

Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.

Tactical Assessments

It is easy to blame particular leaders of repeatedly advocating Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. Washington functions according to a assumption understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The American government believes that it is impossible to pressure the Kremlin to relinquish the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.

The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, Washington does minimal to deter Moscow, through words or deeds, from believing that the situation will not evolve additionally in its benefit in the months ahead.

Conflicting Perspectives

Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are coming close to fatigue. Their reason to agree to terms that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to achieve ceasefire, but they will carry on as long as Russia's government remains supremely confident in the result.

On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, progressively conceding civilians and areas but averting a entire defensive failure until situations evolve in its favour.

Current Realities

Realistically, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to negotiate peace and secure international recognition, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unsuitable, so that their priority does not switch to domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after current events, it remains very improbable that this will modify their basic position.

These opposing factors are driving the talks.

Conclusion and Outlook

It took a mere seven days to eliminate the suggested clauses of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by American leadership, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all served their function.

While new plans based on established approaches are imminent, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to resist diplomatic offensives from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they remain united and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to break them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require continued Western support.