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Ten years following the UK entered into a hasty public vote that split the nation and caused turmoil, a caution is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.

Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.

That is the message from two prominent commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.

Governmental Establishments Not Ready

The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.

"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," O’Toole stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."

New Title Seeks to Stir Debate

The duo have analysed the governmental, economic and societal arguments for any governmental shift in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They seek to stir debate on the issue with a tour of public talks that will bring them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said the analyst.

"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where people who have lost are unable to accept defeat and the those successful are uncertain precisely what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.

Sinn Féin and other nationalists say such a time is approaching, and a group called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, leaving it unclear if and when there might be a national vote.

Insufficient Serious Debate

Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has obscured the absence of informed dialogue, stated McBride.

"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A great deal has taken place in academia but very few government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the essentials. As an example, which kind of country would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"

Publication's Method

In the publication, no writer supports unity or the existing arrangement. Each authors two articles that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a unified Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and governmental frameworks.

Discussions range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to enlighten and encourage conversation.

"There's huge interest in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the notion that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."

Dual Referendums

A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we value you'," said the commentator.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his era is probable and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"

Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will win here and somebody will in the end be defeated but each side has has important lessons to gain from the opposing positions."

Call for More Extensive Discussion

Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns Britain. It is a UK matter equally as it is an Irish issue."